{"id":661,"date":"2026-08-13T13:10:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T13:10:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orioncapital.lt\/?p=661"},"modified":"2026-08-13T13:10:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T13:10:09","slug":"nvidia-august-26-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orioncapital.lt\/lt\/nvidia-august-26-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"Nvidia Before August 26: One Report to Settle the AI Debate"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Ieva Bru\u017eait\u0117 | Founder, Orion Capital | August 2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Executive Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Markets have spent the entire summer arguing about artificial intelligence \u2014 through a June selloff, a July bear market in semiconductors, a violent earnings-week reversal and a Palantir quarter that grew 93%. Every one of those episodes was a proxy battle. The actual verdict arrives on Wednesday, August 26, after the close, when Nvidia reports the quarter ended in late July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strange part is the setup. The company that created the AI trade has become its laggard: the shares sit around $193, roughly 18% below May’s all-time high, and have returned only about 20% over twelve months \u2014 trailing the very technology sector their products power. Apple, not Nvidia, reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable company in late July. Meanwhile the company’s own guidance calls for roughly $91 billion in quarterly revenue, a 95% increase, and forty-three of forty-seven analysts rate the stock a strong buy. A market has rarely been this bullish on paper and this nervous in price. August 26 is where the two positions reconcile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Setup: The Leader That Stopped Leading<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nvidia’s underperformance this year is not a mystery; it is a list. A China export overhang that refuses to resolve. Execution risk in the transition from the Blackwell architecture to next-generation Rubin. A $5 trillion valuation at which merely meeting expectations has historically been punished. And, since late July, a bond market whose 30-year yield \u2014 the highest since 2007 \u2014 quietly taxes every long-duration asset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet through the same twelve months, the business itself never blinked: revenue grew 85% in the May quarter, the data centre segment grew 92% to $75.2 billion, and gross margin held near 75%. The gap between a flat stock and an accelerating income statement is the entire investment question. Either the market knows something about the future the numbers don’t show \u2014 or the numbers are about to force the market to admit it was early to worry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Is Actually Expected<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
What<\/strong><\/td>Number<\/strong><\/td>Why It Matters<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Company revenue guidance (Q2 FY27)<\/td>$91B \u00b1 2% (~+95% YoY)<\/td>The bar Nvidia set for itself; consensus sits at ~$91.8\u201391.9B<\/td><\/tr>
Consensus EPS<\/td>~$2.07<\/td>Roughly a doubling from a year earlier<\/td><\/tr>
Prior quarter (May)<\/td>$81.6B, +85% YoY<\/td>Data centre $75.2B, +92%; gross margin ~75%<\/td><\/tr>
October-quarter guide (the real event)<\/td>Street models ~$104B<\/td>Bulls (BofA) argue for $107\u2013108B; the guide, not the print, moves the stock<\/td><\/tr>
Blackwell FY27 revenue expectation<\/td>~$137B (from ~$86B)<\/td>The ramp that must not stumble<\/td><\/tr>
Rubin<\/td>First revenue expected next quarter<\/td>Consensus ~$38B for FY27; every frontier lab reportedly adopting at launch<\/td><\/tr>
Stock context<\/td>~$193, ~18% below May high<\/td>Up only ~20% in 12 months \u2014 trailing the tech sector it created<\/td><\/tr>
Analyst positioning<\/td>43 of 47 rate strong buy; avg target ~$304<\/td>Near-unanimity is a risk in itself<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Note the structure of the table: only two rows are about the quarter being reported. The rest are about what comes next. That is the correct weighting. After nine consecutive beats, nobody seriously doubts the $91 billion. The stock will trade on the October-quarter guide \u2014 Wall Street models roughly $104 billion; Bank of America argues management will guide $107\u2013108 billion and open a multi-quarter upgrade cycle \u2014 and on two words: Blackwell and Rubin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Three Questions That Decide the Evening<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

First: can Blackwell ship at the pace the numbers assume? Consensus expects Blackwell revenue to rise from roughly $86 billion last fiscal year to about $137 billion this year. That is not a demand question \u2014 it is a manufacturing one, running through TSMC’s packaging lines and, critically, through High Bandwidth Memory supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second: is Rubin on schedule? The next-generation platform is expected to begin contributing revenue next quarter, with consensus already pencilling in roughly $38 billion for the fiscal year. Chief executive Jensen Huang has said every frontier model company plans to adopt Rubin systems at launch \u2014 a claim that was not true of Blackwell’s debut. Any confirmed timeline, sample-shipment detail or early order commentary will be read as the report’s real headline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third: what does the guide say about demand durability? The October-quarter number is the market’s referendum on whether hyperscaler capital expenditure \u2014 now guided at $720\u2013745 billion for 2026 across the four largest buyers \u2014 translates into Nvidia’s order book at the pace bulls assume, or whether custom silicon and digestion phases begin to bite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the Supply Chain Already Testified<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Here is the advantage of covering the ecosystem rather than the ticker: most of Nvidia’s report has already been previewed, under oath, by its suppliers and customers. SK Hynix \u2014 supplier of the majority of Nvidia’s High Bandwidth Memory \u2014 reported the strongest quarter in its history in late July, confirmed that HBM4 mass shipments began in Q2 and ramp through the second half, and disclosed multi-year contracts with roughly ten customers, with capacity effectively sold out. Samsung’s report hinted at prolonged chip shortages. Korean semiconductor exports rose 179% in July. And the hyperscalers did not merely express enthusiasm \u2014 they raised written capital-expenditure guidance within days of each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supply sold out, memory ramping, customers raising budgets in writing: it is difficult to assemble that evidence into a story where Nvidia’s demand quietly collapsed in the July quarter. The honest uncertainty is not whether the quarter was strong. It is whether “strong” clears a bar set by near-unanimous bullishness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bear Case, Stated Fairly<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n